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Letter "I" » Ian Shepherdson Quotes


«The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.»
«No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.»
«This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.»
«It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.»
«Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.»
«Both the unemployment rate and wages were stronger than consensus and they clearly make it very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates by [a half percentage point].»
«[With today's report,] the chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike on the 16th has been increased, ... The report is unequivocal.»
«There is a clear change in the tone of the Beige Book, but not all the news is good.»
«Clearly there is nothing here at all to comfort the Fed.»
«With the fastest productivity growth and biggest drop in unit labor costs in seven years, the numbers are certainly worth shouting about, but as yet we are far from convinced that much of the improvement is structural. Mr. Greenspan is of the same view, which is why rates are going up no matter what happens to productivity growth.»

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